Friday, August 1, 2008

2012 A New GeoPolitical Order

A New Geopolitical Order

If you’ve not been living in a cave since the millennium you may have noticed that the world economic picture is changing. This is not necessarily a bad thing, as everyone has the right to pursue, and hopefully obtain, prosperity.

Countries such as India and China are rising in prominence. The Gulf states, long rich on oil, are increasingly becoming a world center of business. Just look at Dubai, along with China, they’ve invested billions into America’s financial institutions. This was made easier and cheaper by America’s subprime mortgage collapse.

At the 2008 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, billionaire George Soros claimed the United States is at the end of a cycle and its currency will be dumped around the world. Soros said we’re at “the end of a 60-year period of continuing credit expansion based on the dollar as the reserve currency.”

The result? The world is ready for a new economic order, and according to Nouriel Roubini, America looks like an emerging market, not an economic leader. Further sentiment was expressed by the head of Kuwait’s national bank that America needs to get used to being bought up by foreign sovereign wealth funds, in other words, foreign governments.[9]

To further complicate the world stage, as if in anticipation or in a test of US dominance, Russia and China have both announced preemptive nuclear strike policies. For Russia, this may very well entail creating mobile units with nuclear strike capabilities distributed throughout the country.

Perhaps in a time of peace this would just seem like bluster, but both Russia and China are aligned in direct opposition to the west in key hair-trigger geopolitical situations.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been going since time immemorial. On one side you have the secular nation of Israel, carved out of the British Mandate after World War II, and home to many diverse groups throughout history, and home to some of the holiest sites in Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. On the other side you have the Palestinians, many of which are unwilling to accept the existence of the state of Israel. It is a widely held, but false belief, that prior to Israel a sovereign nation of Palestine existed, and therefore modern Palestinians have a right to it, while Israel is squatting, but no such nation has ever existed. The name Palestine was given to a broad swath of territory within the British Mandate.

The British Mandate itself was carved from the Ottoman Empire following World War I. Under the Ottoman Empire the region was home to diverse groups, living in largely tribal communities. Jews and Arabs have lived in the area for ages.

So what we have is an area home to diverse groups, historically living in tribes, and subject to various world powers, now reacting, and fighting, over areas of individual sovereignty.

The situation is not going to improve anytime soon. Unfortunately, forces aligned against the existence of the nation of Israel include Syria and Iran. Pro-Syrian factions in Lebanon aren’t helping things either. Iran is backed by the Russians, and to some degree, the Chinese. Israel is backed by the United States, and to some extent, the nations of Europe.

The entire region is a powder keg. Iran has repeatedly stated that Israel should be wiped off the map, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad routinely declares that the “Zionist regime” will come to an end.

Iran has promised a massive retaliation if Israel or the United States attempts to bomb away its nuclear capability. Russia has stated that it would use nuclear weapons to defend itself and its allies.

Taiwan has proved itself to be a hair-trigger as well. China has repeatedly warned the United States about getting involved if a conflict breaks out over Taiwan. In fact, in 2005 a top Chinese general warned that if US weapons targeted Chinese territory or military assets, they would have no choice but to respond with nuclear weapons.[10]

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